Russian Chess: The Consequences of American Military Action in Syria
It is in the best interest of Vladimir Putin for American air strikes to cause Russian casualties on the ground in Syria. Here’s a preview of what is likely to follow.
Russian meddling in U.S. elections. Seeding doubt within the NATO alliance. Aligning themselves with hard-right politicians throughout Europe. Vladimir Putin is playing the long game, and should American forces strike in Syria, the stakes for him could not be higher. His credibility as a global leader is on the line by supporting his long-time ally and if push comes to shove, he will be more than happy to roll the dice on a broader chess map.
Donald Trump erased the red line President Obama set earlier this decade when he decided not to take military action against Syria. Prior to Trump’s tweet, where he warned of Russia to get ready for, “Nice, New and Smart,” missiles, 59 American Tomahawk missiles obliterated two Syrian air bases in 2017. His tweet on Tuesday cemented the American position that it will take additional military action against Assad and his recent use of chemical weapons.
It is in Putin’s best interest for American bombs to kill Russian troops on the ground. Here is the rationale:
Justification for Defensive Action: The loss of Russian troops will provide the means for Putin to hit back at American assets. Whether that is at sea, on the ground in Syria or elsewhere, the Russian military will make plans to strike American targets. Russian officials can cite their actions were implemented for defensive purposes, due to the loss of fallen comrades.
Embolden Russian Military Commanders and Citizenry: Not only will Russian military commanders want to strike back, Putin will have even stronger support from his constituents. He can rally the nation and will do so in quick fashion.
The Means to Cite Irrational American Leadership: If America cannot be trusted to use their military in a responsible manner, Putin will make the argument to American allies that Trump is unstable and not worthy of support.
Putin’s ultimate goal is to snap the NATO alliance in order to give himself room to maneuver. He wants to reestablish Russia’s broad sphere of influence, first over neighboring countries (Latvia, Poland, Ukraine, etc.) and furthermore into western Europe. This reflects a centuries-old intuition that was embedded with Czar and Soviet powers in the past, as well as within the current regime. That instinct is to push the borders back as far away as possible from the motherland to provide greater security.
It would be regrettable for U.S. bombings to kill Russian troops, but from Putin’s perspective, it provides him with more options. It was no surprise read in the Wall Street Journal that Syrian planes are presently encamped side-by-side with Russian aircraft. In all probability, the Russians encouraged the Syrians to airbases where Russian troops are stationed.
Here are three predictions that may play out in the months to come, based on the points made above:
The Russian Counter Attack: It would be naive to think that Russian intelligence and military assets are not already at work in the Mediterranean to pinpoint American naval assets. When missiles are launched, all it would take is a strike force of Russian jets or a single submarine to hit back at whatever American vessel fired the missiles. Vladimir Putin also utilized naval assets to launch missiles against Syrian rebels from the Caspian sea. These assets may come into play. Expect a counter attack to happen within hours, if not days, if Russian troops are taken out by American tomahawk cruise missiles. If not Russian, expect Syrian forces to take dead aim at American troops and seamen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2TQ0wAfRts
European Election Meddling: Russian will up the ante even further and use any means necessary to cement broader European dismay with American leadership. Hard-right politicians will be pressed, bribed and propped up by Russian liaisons and political hackers. For recently elected politicians, like Viktor Orban in Hungary and the Fidesz party, Russia will make a hard case to strengthen ties between the two countries. Other elections in Poland and Sweden later this year will draw in Russian agents with the goal of swaying votes in favor of anti-American political parties.
The Chess Move, The Baltics or Eastern Ukraine: By positioning itself as being under threat from the United States, economically and militarily (after Syrian airstrikes), Russian forces will position themselves to attack on multiple fronts. Whether it is in the Ukraine or the Baltics (or both) depends on any success achieved in the theoretical counter attack. If Putin can claim any victory, he has the means to further promote his agenda. In the Baltics, where NATO assets are on the ground, he can justify a preemptive attack to his people. He can cite how Russian blood has already been spilled and he’s taking necessary steps to keep his country safe from adjacent NATO forces in the Baltic states. The Eastern provinces of Ukraine are dominated, population wise, with people of Russian descent. Similar to how Hitler operated when he annexed Czechoslovakia, Putin can justify the use of force to protect pro-Russian populations in Eastern Ukraine.
The endgame for Putin is to press Europe to make a choice — stand down when America, and their aloof and unstable President, calls for support from other NATO members. That choice will play into Russia’s hand and their ultimate goal: to reestablish Russia as a pivotal leader on the global stage as it once did when the Soviet flag flew across a multitude of nations and neighboring territories.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world will be watching. The bear is looking to clip the feathers of the American eagle, and Putin may have the rationale to do so if we are not careful.
