The 2020 Election: The Trump Gamble and a Prelude to War

By November of this year, the Trump administration will represent an unhinged and embattled entity. To preserve his Presidency, Trump will use the only remaining narrative available to magnify his chance to win reelection in 2020: a military intervention.

The number one priority for any government, and for those who possess political power, is to preserve itself. With few if any political achievements to speak of, this will represent the administration’s point of view in the near future. Without any alternatives, war will represent the only political tool available for President Trump he can leverage to justify a second term.

Three political currents are starting to erode the foundation of the Trump presidency:

The Republican Party: Several weeks ago, Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell, confirmed the Republican-controlled Senate would not support President Trump’s, ‘national emergency’ to fund the border wall. The Republican party itself is beginning to establish boundaries between itself and the President. This will accelerate in the months to come as questions about Donald Trump’s collusion with Russia and the impact of the released Mueller report start to take effect.

The Art of the (Failed) Deal: The recent summit with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un was an utter failure. Nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula continues unabated. If the tariff war with China or the revised NAFTA agreement fails to address Trump’s original concerns, the President’s reputation for deal-making will lie in ruins. He will lack any credibility regarding his business acumen on the 2020 campaign trail.

The IRS: There is no greater impetus for political change in American history other than taxes. Trust is either established or eliminated by what one owes to the government come tax season. George Herbert Walker Bush, the 41st President, lost the 1992 election to Bill Clinton for this very reason (he raised taxes). Donald Trump promised to cut taxes and he did, however, the loss of deductions and tax credits will result in millions of Americans owing Uncle Sam money come April 15th of this year. Americans did not adjust their 2018 tax withholdings and a tidal wave of resentment is brewing. This cycle will repeat itself in 2020.

Donald Trump will need a rallying cry come November of this year to rebuild his base and reaffirm his party’s loyalty to the executive branch. It will be encouraged and defended by the likes of John Bolton, an adamant war hawk. A narrative will be used that is easy to establish and defend, similar to how George W. Bush referred to Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the ‘Axis of evil.’

It will come down to a single premise that is, by itself, hard to refute: we are doing our part to save the innocent lives of (FILL IN THE BLANK). At that point, we’ll know where the President has locked on a target, and it will either be the Mullahs in Iran or the Maduro government in Venezuela.

Iran, and their nuclear facilities provide the perfect backstory to justify an act of aggression. According to a report back in 2015 by the Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon has developed advanced bunker-busting munitions that can penetrate Iran’s underground facilities at Natanz. If Trump opts to target Iran for political purposes, he has a ready and willing ally waiting in the wings: Israel. If Trump goes down this path, we’ll start to see stories surface about these bunker-buster bombs a few months before hostilities commence. The administration will also start issuing frequent reports about Iran’s nuclear production, regardless if there’s any truth to the intelligence.

The state of affairs within Venezuela represents an ongoing humanitarian crisis. It is now a political crisis, given Maduro refuses to step down from power. It is highly unlikely the standoff with Juan Guaido’ will end without bloodshed. Trump can use this to justify an American intervention and politically, it reinforces what has become a tenant of his Presidency: to strengthen America’s southern border. This narrative, among steadfast Trump supporters, could kill two birds with one stone: ‘save Venezuelan lives and protect America’s borders.’ This too has precedence in American history: George H.W. Bush’s intervention in Panama to remove Manuel Noriega from power.

However, the Venezuelan military possesses the means to fight back. A military conflict in that nation will require a significant contingent of U.S. military ground troops.

Many administrations have used military force for political purposes. Without any credible achievements to speak to Trump will leverage war to rally the country around American patriotism. And despite the war powers act, which limits the executive branch to 90 days of hostilities, he will use every single one of them to provide himself with the narrative he needs to preserve his Presidency in 2020.