The Next President and The Balance of The Supreme Court
An unbiased look at the political leanings of today’s Supreme Court shows how the next President will have a major impact on the court’s influence. In fact, the next President could cement future court opinions for an entire generation that has yet to be born.
Death, or the retirements of Supreme Court members, will have a significant impact on Americans today and those who have yet to be born. The next four years will result in either one of two scenarios: a seven-member conservative majority with unprecedented authority, or a balanced Supreme Court that sways between political affiliations.
There is no question that the next President will appoint someone who espouses and shares the same set of values affiliated with his or her party. If President Trump is reelected, his chance to nominate two new court members are well above average. The same holds true for Joe Biden if he defeats Donald Trump.
It comes down to one sole factor: age. Great medical advancements over the past fifty years, and the subsequent extension in which Supreme Court justices serve (as reported by Bloomberg), boils down to one number: 83. That is the average age today when justices retire or decease.
Two liberal members of the court, Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, will be 82 and 87 years old this year, respectively.
Consider the implications if one or both retire or pass away during the next Presidential term. The 2020 election may result in a conservative majority until the year 2038. This year will coincide with John Roberts turning 83 years old, and including two yet-to-be-nominated conservative judges (if Trump wins), there is no question our legal system will lean toward the right side of the spectrum for the foreseeable future.
Death often provides one with greater clarity about life itself. If we assume the next President will fill two forthcoming vacancies, it is worth highlighting how today’s average age of retirement will play out over the next twenty years.
Today’s Court and the Ages of Justices
The court is split 5–4 between conservative and liberal judges.
The Court’s Makeup, politically, if President Trump is Reelected
The influence of the court will exclusively lean toward the right side of the political spectrum.
The Comparisons of Age Between Future Liberal and Conservative Justices
If we assume 83 is the magic age, when a justice opts to retire or he/she deceases, this chart reflects the number of years each member has yet to serve (based on each person’s age in 2020). This also assumes the next President will appoint someone close in age to the youngest justice, Neil Gorsuch. Note the years left to serve. Political sentiments are TBD in this chart.
Trump’s Reelection and the Justice’s Timeframes in Which to Serve
The court will be solidly conservative with a 7–2 split. Future rulings will more closely align with a strict interpretation of the constitution, with little to no levity offered to modern-day interpretations. When comparing collective term lengths, this chart notes that if each justice serves to 83 years old, the number of ‘conservative years’ represents a 4-to-1 ratio compares to ‘liberal years’ left to serve.
Biden’s Election to the Presidency, and the Court’s Future
Joe Biden would have the opportunity to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Beyer, both of whom will be +83 years in age when the next President takes office. This results in an equal number of years served by each side of the political spectrum. The court would lean conservatively, but recent history suggests Neil Gorsuch and John Roberts do not represent strict-conservative appointees.
Conclusions
The Supreme Court represents one-third of our governing body, which the founding fathers established to promote a balance of power between the court, the legislature, and the Presidency. Ideally, all three are to work in unison to ensure one side of government does not impose uniform authority over the other two. For the past 233 years, it has worked relatively well — a testament to those who drafted, supported, and ratified the constitution four years after the United States won independence from Great Britain.
From a conservative point of view, two new appointees in their camp would tilt the court solidly to the right until John Robert’s resigns from office. With two new Trump appointees working side-by-side with John Roberts, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh, the court could hold up to seven (out of nine) seats on the Supreme Court until the year 2038 (assuming each member serves until he or she is 83 years old). Liberal appointees would balance the court for a minimum of 17 years, cementing four justices on the liberal side of the equation during the same timeframe (nearly). Between now and the years 2037 or 2038, two conservative justices would likely retire (Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, who are 70 and 72 respectively).
Many things could happen, as death inevitably gets in the way of participating in life. No one knows for certain how long any one of us will live. However, the certainty that Supreme Court terms are longer today than at any point in our nation’s history puts the impetus on today’s voter. The election in 2020 will influence one-third of our governing body and the Supreme Court will have an impact on an entire generation that has yet to be born.
